A new study by Fraunhofer IWES indicates that expanding offshore wind capacity into the waters of Germany’s neighboring countries could improve energy output while reducing the cost of offshore electricity supplied to Germany.
The research evaluated multiple offshore wind development scenarios for the North Sea. According to the findings, concentrating future capacity less densely within Germany’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and shifting part of the planned expansion to neighboring countries would reduce wake and shadowing effects between wind farms, improving overall wind farm performance.
Germany currently aims to install 70 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2045. The study states that, under existing area development plans, offshore wind utilization in the German North Sea would remain below its technical potential despite the region’s strong wind resources. Dense wind farm development would reduce achievable output, including full-load hours that could otherwise reach up to 5,000 hours.
The study was commissioned by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) and the German Offshore Wind Energy Association (BWO). It proposes scenarios in which up to 20 GW of offshore wind capacity would be installed in the waters of Germany’s neighboring countries, with the generated electricity transmitted to the German power grid.
According to the analysis, the offshore wind farms located outside the German EEZ would achieve higher capacity utilization while lowering overall construction and operating costs. Depending on the scenario, average full-load hours and energy yields could increase by 6% to 13%, while the levelized cost of offshore electricity could decline by 6% to 11%.
The study concludes that prioritizing energy yield and cost efficiency could result in approximately 50 GW to 60 GW of installed offshore wind capacity within Germany’s EEZ by 2045. Combined with up to 20 GW of cross-border offshore wind capacity, the country’s overall target of 70 GW would remain achievable.
