The global oil market is showing mixed signals, according to a report by Standard Chartered Bank’s Head of Energy Research, Emily Ashford. The analysis, shared with Rigzone, includes Brent crude forecasts generated by the bank’s machine learning model, SCORPIO.
Ashford noted that the market is caught between widespread expectations of a supply surplus and uncertainty around U.S. policy decisions toward major producers, combined with trade and tariff tensions affecting demand.
Front-month Brent crude settled at $68.89 per barrel on 3 November, nearly identical to the forecast issued by SCORPIO the previous week. For 10 November, the model projects an increase of $1.67 per barrel, with a settlement at $66.56 per barrel, mainly reflecting mixed but generally supportive data from the United States.
Ashford added that the U.S. government shutdown, now exceeding 37 days, has paused several key data releases, adding uncertainty to short-term market assessments.
Standard Chartered’s report described crude oil sentiment as “overwhelmingly negative.” The bank expects near-term weakness from perceived oversupply and subdued demand indicators. Ashford also stated that lower prices could slow U.S. shale output growth, while if OPEC+ maintains production increases, the focus may shift toward tightening supply and limited spare capacity, offering support in the medium term.
According to the report, ICE Brent nearby future prices are expected to average $68.50 per barrel in 2025 and $63.50 per barrel in 2026, with quarterly estimates of $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by $62, $63, $64, and $64.50 per barrel across the four quarters of 2026.
A separate research note from J.P. Morgan reported a $2 billion week-on-week decline in the estimated value of open interest across energy markets, mainly driven by $6.7 billion in contract-based outflows from natural gas markets, offset by $6.3 billion inflows into crude oil and refined product markets.
In a note sent on 31 October, J.P. Morgan projected that Brent crude will average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026, with quarterly forecasts of $61 per barrel in Q4 of this year, $55 in Q1 next year, $57 in both Q2 and Q3, and $60 in Q4 2026.
At the time of writing, Rigzone reported that the White House, U.S. Department of Energy, American Petroleum Institute, and OPEC had not responded to requests for comment.
Source: Rigzone
