Spinergie forecasts a shortage of offshore wind installation vessels from 2030, with demand expected to exceed available fleet capacity by 38% in 2031, following several years of surplus capacity.
The maritime market intelligence firm’s Q4 Offshore Wind Forecast indicates that installation vessel supply will remain above demand through 2029 before tightening significantly as offshore wind installation and heavy maintenance activity increases.
Demand is projected to decline to 23 vessel-years in 2028, representing approximately half of the capacity available in the market, according to Spinergie.
The company attributes the anticipated downturn to the delayed impact of slower offshore wind investment decisions in 2024. Lower vessel utilisation during this period could put pressure on day rates, while some operators may seek employment for their vessels outside the offshore wind sector.
However, the market is expected to reverse direction from 2030.
Spinergie estimates that demand for installation and heavy maintenance will reach 58 vessel-years in 2031, exceeding available fleet capacity by 38%. Its forecast indicates that demand will remain at or above available capacity through 2035.
The projected recovery also creates uncertainty over the timing of new vessel investments.
According to Spinergie, approximately four years may be required between ordering and delivering a new installation vessel. A vessel ordered in 2028 could therefore enter service after the anticipated demand peak in 2031.
The forecast suggests that vessel owners face different market conditions over the coming years, with spare capacity and potentially weaker charter rates in the near term followed by tighter vessel availability.
For offshore wind developers, the projected shortage could make it more difficult to reschedule projects that encounter delays. Spinergie warns that without spare installation capacity, some delayed projects could face cancellation rather than further postponement.
Charter rates could also rise as demand approaches or exceeds the available fleet’s capabilities.
The findings are based on Spinergie’s Q4 Offshore Wind Forecast, which examines installation vessel supply and demand alongside offshore wind project activity.
The outlook points to a significant change in vessel availability between the current period of excess capacity and the anticipated tightening of the market from 2030.
